Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.197855 0.237275 0.284438 0.345602 0.423670 0.521137 0.653866
2025-06-01 0.144689 0.189174 0.248529 0.335380 0.462464 0.647009 0.945869
2025-06-08 0.111128 0.156011 0.221647 0.328400 0.505432 0.802831 1.378199
2025-06-15 0.088918 0.132936 0.202850 0.328362 0.563494 1.022059 2.099740
2025-06-22 0.072477 0.114562 0.186565 0.328290 0.627134 1.305841 3.279918
2025-06-29 0.057798 0.095584 0.164321 0.310618 0.653019 1.548482 4.769989
2025-07-06 0.042060 0.071382 0.126647 0.249842 0.557069 1.435541 5.081652
2025-07-13 0.035717 0.062984 0.117180 0.246830 0.604013 1.785371 8.077253
2025-07-20 0.031548 0.057831 0.112991 0.255108 0.691431 2.396453 14.831457
2025-07-27 0.028421 0.054095 0.110930 0.268737 0.811341 3.362346 30.905441
2025-08-03 0.025492 0.050159 0.107436 0.277763 0.930083 4.628143 67.670068
2025-08-10 0.022320 0.045053 0.099843 0.271899 0.991837 5.795093 135.600011
2025-08-17 0.019184 0.039644 0.090683 0.259432 1.028991 7.097564 292.530356
2025-08-24 0.017212 0.036582 0.086955 0.264396 1.167167 10.097766 1083.482492
2025-08-31 0.015527 0.033883 0.083544 0.269576 1.326270 14.701359 6662.887065
2025-09-07 0.014174 0.031751 0.081223 0.278577 1.538648 22.749079 175969.788186
2025-09-14 0.012962 0.029744 0.078751 0.286302 1.773821 35.900830 NaN
2025-09-21 0.011570 0.026999 0.073234 0.277586 1.872488 48.825759 NaN
2025-09-28 0.009588 0.022346 0.060498 0.228559 1.531360 39.104654 NaN
2025-10-05 0.008800 0.020877 0.058004 0.229285 1.689177 58.532120 NaN
2025-10-12 0.008269 0.020036 0.057421 0.239860 1.992106 105.974668 NaN
2025-10-19 0.007853 0.019448 0.057582 0.255196 2.423258 223.404204 NaN
2025-10-26 0.007406 0.018691 0.056942 0.266033 2.861068 479.792639 NaN